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For many years there has been an argument regarding inbreeding to Northern Dancer. There was a belief that inbreeding through two sons produced 'plodding' colts. The Gr1 winning colts inbred through two sons kept appearing and made the 'plodding' colts theory seem well wide of the mark.
Some years
ago it an hypothesis was made that what did not work was inbreeding to Northern Dancer through two daughters. There is an article at URL http://www.pedigreepost.net/archives/ND_Female_Leo.html
that argues this case.
At the time I argued against the conclusion and stated that the flaw in the argument is the successful are being taken into account but not the opportunity. After some research I tried to point out that for some reason the number of foals being produced in North America through two daughters is far less than one would think. The only place where there has been some success was in South America where the likes of Luhuk, Not For Love, Southern Halo and Mutakddim
had all stood successfully at some time and hence more opportunity. Still, I have always had a nagging doubt that Northern Dancer inbreeding success just might be a function of opportunity and can now hopefully prove it.
The TrueNicks team in collaboration with Equineline are in the process of producing an online program to supplement the other reports offered. I have been asked and have agreed to be a beta tester for the program. One of the functions of the program is that you can do a Query by Position. For this you have a 4 generation pedigree and can type in horses in whatever positions you want to and find out the raw statistics like foals, runners, winners, black type winners and also get a list of the blacktype successes.
A very useful facility. I have seen this kind of search with other software packages but these tend to produce a list of successful runners. It was this type of query I suspect produced the data for the PedigreePost article mentioned above. This new program accesses the complete Jockey Club database so probably for the first time we can consider population opportunity.
Harmed with this package I can do a search using Northern Dancer in multiple positions and see what data I get. For what follows the image below should be referred to so that when I say 8 x 12 you will know I am mean Northern Dancer through 2 males and 8 x 26 will be Northern Dancer would be through a son and a daughter.
To give an idea of the output, remember this application is still in beta-testing, a query with Northern Dancer in positions 20 and 26 and hence through 2 daughters produced the following:
| Foals |
Starters |
Winners |
BT Winners |
Earnings |
1,870 |
1,150 (61.5%) |
703 (37.6%) |
52 (2.8%) |
$39,625,154 |
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The program lists all the 52 blacktype horses but for brevity I have reduced the list to just show the 9 Gr1 winners.
Below is a table summarizing results through all positions :
| Type |
Posn |
Runners |
Starts |
Wins |
Blacktype |
| M x F |
4 x 6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| M x M |
4 x 12 |
607 |
381 |
216 |
15 |
| M x F |
4 x 14 |
157 |
102 |
60 |
8 |
| M x M |
4 x 24 |
1,540 |
951 |
574 |
55 |
| M x F |
4 x 26 |
261 |
178 |
121 |
6 |
| M x M |
4 x 28 |
1,196 |
864 |
568 |
78 |
| M x F |
4 x 30 |
194 |
147 |
114 |
11 |
| M x F |
8 x 6 |
19 |
12 |
5 |
0 |
| M x M |
8 x 12 |
8,557 |
5,251 |
3,055 |
201 |
| M x F |
8 x 14 |
944 |
690 |
419 |
45 |
| M x M |
8 x 24 |
25,259 |
14,075 |
7,746 |
490 |
| M x F |
8 x 26 |
2,734 |
1,653 |
1,008 |
51 |
| M x M |
8 x 28 |
12,127 |
7,640 |
4,526 |
373 |
| M x F |
8 x 30 |
1,250 |
833 |
527 |
47 |
| F x F |
10 x 6 |
10 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
| F x M |
10 x 12 |
1,295 |
898 |
544 |
38 |
| F x F |
10 x 14 |
100 |
71 |
48 |
2 |
| F x M |
10 x 24 |
3,168 |
1,967 |
1,201 |
85 |
| F x F |
10 x 26 |
305 |
185 |
101 |
11 |
| F x M |
10 x 28 |
998 |
674 |
413 |
24 |
| F x F |
10 x 30 |
115 |
83 |
48 |
2 |
| M x F |
16 x 6 |
29 |
15 |
7 |
0 |
| M x M |
16 x 12 |
9,479 |
5,451 |
3,094 |
195 |
| M x F |
16 x 14 |
771 |
496 |
284 |
26 |
| M x M |
16 x 24 |
32322 |
15589 |
8,441 |
574 |
| M x F |
16 x 26 |
3,236 |
1,613 |
978 |
64 |
| M x M |
16 x 28 |
14,405 |
7,728 |
4,430 |
343 |
| M x F |
16 x 30 |
1,414 |
805 |
491 |
35 |
| F x F |
18 x 6 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
0 |
| F x M |
18 x 12 |
376 |
256 |
178 |
11 |
| F x F |
18 x 14 |
33 |
24 |
19 |
0 |
| F x M |
18 x 24 |
1,640 |
770 |
475 |
21 |
| F x F |
18 x 26 |
210 |
119 |
83 |
2 |
| F x M |
18 x 28 |
472 |
270 |
177 |
12 |
| F x F |
18 x 30 |
55 |
33 |
19 |
1 |
| M x F |
20 x 6 |
73 |
47 |
26 |
1 |
| M x M |
20 x 12 |
9,749 |
6,617 |
3,865 |
299 |
| M x F |
20 x 14 |
658 |
473 |
281 |
22 |
| M x M |
20 x 24 |
23,565 |
13,633 |
7,689 |
535 |
| M x F |
20 x 26 |
1,870 |
1,150 |
703 |
52 |
| M x M |
20 x 28 |
9,394 |
5,984 |
3,324 |
233 |
| M x F |
20 x 30 |
971 |
615 |
349 |
35 |
| F x F |
22 x 6 |
10 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
| F x M |
22 x 12 |
1,355 |
863 |
528 |
47 |
| F x F |
22 x 14 |
90 |
54 |
31 |
3 |
| F x M |
22 x 24 |
3,454 |
1,884 |
1,075 |
70 |
| F x F |
22 x 26 |
686 |
429 |
312 |
42 |
| F x M |
22 x 28 |
1,322 |
785 |
444 |
34 |
| F x F |
22 x 30 |
132 |
71 |
47 |
5 |
Grouping the results we get:
| Foals |
Runners |
Wins |
Blacktype |
Wins/Foals |
Blacktype/Foals |
| 1752 |
1082 |
714 |
69 |
40.75% |
3.94% |
| 14582 |
8829 |
5373 |
403 |
36.85% |
2.76% |
| 14080 |
8367 |
5035 |
342 |
35.76% |
2.43% |
| 148200 |
84164 |
47528 |
3391 |
32.07% |
2.29% |
In relative terms I would suggest that inbreeding to Northern Dancer through two daughters is not that bad a thing to do! |
