Is close-up,
a cross at 3x3 or less, inbreeding to a stallion good?
This thought originated because I read that inbreeding
to Danzig was to be avoided. I just could not see the logic in
avoiding inbreeding to one of the best stallions of recent years.
The perceived problem seem to be that Danzig was felt to be unsound.
I just do not get this argument because many Danzig sons and daughters
are not unsound.
We do we inbreed at all? It's to try and capture
some trait. Now if Danzig has an inheritable trait for unsoundness
then it probably would be stupid to inbreed to him. As most of his
better son's like Green Desert, Danehill, Chief's Crown etc do not seem
to have a problem maybe the trait is not unsoundness. Maybe it is
the one trait that we all want .. speed.
Anyway, a sample was taken of horses between
1995 and 2002 that were inbred 3x3 or less to a stallion. T
Where I found less than 15 occurences of a stallion
being inbred to I threw the results away. The vast majority had no
or very little success. One of those thrown out was Surumu who I
found inbred in only 4 horses. Gr1 winner Intendant, Gr2 winner All
Spirit, Listed winner Avenir Rubra and Group placed Harar. Another
was Cambremont who I only found inbred in one horse, Gr1 winner Coalsack.
This of course highlights that statistics is not very
useful for individual cases. A Coalsack may never occur again.
In the case of Surumu four good ones from four is rather appealing.
So the following list is of those sires, all very
popular, that I found 15 or more foals inbred to.
|
Sire |
G1 |
G2 |
G3 |
List |
Btype |
Other |
Sum |
%
Gsw |
%Btype |
| ALYDAR |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
19 |
23 |
0.00% |
17.39% |
| BOLD RULER |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
35 |
35 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| BUCKPASSER |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
43 |
43 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| DAMASCUS |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
47 |
48 |
0.00% |
2.08% |
| DANZIG |
0 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
37 |
43 |
6.98% |
13.95% |
| HAIL TO REASON |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
22 |
22 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| HALO |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
18 |
19 |
0.00% |
5.26% |
| HIS MAJESTY |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
15 |
13.33% |
20.00% |
| HOIST THE FLAG |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
25 |
28 |
0.00% |
10.71% |
| IN REALITY |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
51 |
56 |
3.57% |
8.93% |
| LYPHARD |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
17 |
21 |
4.76% |
19.05% |
| MILL REEF |
0 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
13 |
16 |
12.50% |
18.75% |
| MR PROSPECTOR |
4 |
1 |
8 |
11 |
11 |
184 |
219 |
5.94% |
15.98% |
| NEARCTIC |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
18 |
5.56% |
5.56% |
| NIJINSKY II |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
41 |
45 |
4.44% |
8.89% |
| NORTHERN DANCER |
11 |
11 |
17 |
15 |
33 |
648 |
735 |
5.31% |
11.84% |
| RAISE A NATIVE |
1 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
8 |
136 |
148 |
1.35% |
8.11% |
| ROBERTO |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
16 |
17 |
0.00% |
5.88% |
| SEATTLE SLEW |
0 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
19 |
22 |
9.09% |
13.64% |
| SECRETARIAT |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
38 |
43 |
2.33% |
11.63% |
| VICE REGENT |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
16 |
18 |
0.00% |
11.11% |
The surprising thing about the list is who has not
worked. Other than Surumu and Cambremont mentioned above the only
Gr1 winners I found were inbred to Northern Dancer (by far the more
common to inbreed to), Mr Prospector, Raise A Native, Nijinsky II, In
Reality and His Majesty. Nothing else has worked.
Is this a surprise? I thought so but after
reflection I am not sure it is. To work well at 3x3 a stallion
probably needs to be a good sire of sires and a good broodmare sire.
Or at the very least a sire of a sire who was a good broodmare sire.
Mr Prospector certainly qualifies as a good broodmare
sire and sire of sires. Northern Dancer's numbers seem to be quite
positive. Over 5% group winners and nearly 12% blacktype from a sample
of 735 is not bad at all. Danzig although with no Gr1 winners to
date returns quite favourable numbers. His Majesty returns the
best figures. However, with just 15 in the sample care needs to be taken
before we say he's a good one to have. Mind you his Gr1 winner is
Keeper by Danehill and the Gr3 winner is Blazing Fury by Dynaformer.
Danehill and Dynaformer now there are a nice pair of grandson's to have
on the team. Mill Reef has worked too and I would have guessed via
Shirley Height's and Darshaan but not so. His 2 successes are
Double Reef (Nz) by Last Tycoon and Craft Work (Jpn) by Pentire.
So what of those not getting good results.
Buckpasser has been tried and found wanting. There have been
opportunities for his daughters to get some stallions and with grandsons
like Believe It, El Gran Senor, Easy Goer, Miswaki, Polish Precedent,
Seeking The Gold, Woodman etc you would have to think something would
click by now. I suppose his problem must be on the bottom half of
the pedigree. He did not have good enough sire sons to get good
daughters or his daughters did not get daughters. Why has Bold
Ruler not had any good results? Damascus is one minor stakes winner, the
filly Extra Change, from 47. Is it that inbreeding to him
makes the offspring just a little short of speed and strong on stamina.
Is this the case with those inbred to Bold Ruler?
Overall close inbreeding comes out pretty well at just
over 4% group winners and 11% stakes winners to foals. Yet it
seems that if you don't get the write mix it's probably going to not
work at all.
More questions than answers I am afraid!
Adrian Parry Copyright August 2006 |
